SINGAPORE — Japan is on course to overtake China as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas this year, according to forecasts reported by Reuters on October 30. Analysts say weak Chinese demand, high international prices and expectations of a mild winter are changing the ranking. The result remains a projection until full-year import figures are available.
Consultancy ICIS expects Japan to import about 62 million metric tons of LNG in 2026, compared with 61 million for China. Data firm Kpler forecasts roughly 63 million tons for Japan and 62 million for China. The small projected gap means revisions or unexpected winter demand could still change the final ranking, even though both forecasts point in the same direction.
China became the largest LNG buyer in 2021 after years of rising demand, but its imports have struggled to regain that peak. Domestic gas production, pipeline supplies and renewable energy have provided alternatives to costly seaborne cargoes. These changes suggest that China’s energy strategy is evolving, rather than merely responding to one unusually warm season.
The war involving Iran has added pressure by disrupting energy markets and raising prices. When spot LNG becomes expensive, buyers with flexible demand may reduce purchases, draw on storage or use other fuels. Analysts cited by Reuters estimate that high prices could be suppressing substantial potential Chinese spot-market demand. That estimate is not a confirmed volume of imports that will later materialize.
China also entered the heating season with substantial gas in storage. Reuters reported estimates that underground facilities were roughly 80% to 90% full by the end of September. Strong inventories can reduce the need for urgent purchases, although cold weather, industrial activity and supply disruptions could change requirements during the winter.
Japan’s own LNG demand is not necessarily booming. Analysts say it has been declining more slowly than China’s, partly because some Japanese nuclear reactors have restarted. The expected change in ranking therefore reflects relative weakness as much as outright growth. Japan last imported more LNG than China in 2022, so the possibility is not without precedent.
The outlook matters for exporters that have invested in new LNG terminals and production capacity. Large projects require years of construction and often rely on long-term expectations of Asian demand. If China imports less than anticipated, sellers may need to compete more aggressively for customers or redirect cargoes to other markets, affecting prices and investment decisions.
American readers have a stake because the United States is a major LNG supplier. Exporters, port communities, equipment makers and investors follow demand from Asian utilities and industrial buyers. However, a change in the import ranking does not automatically mean U.S. exports will fall; contract terms, shipping costs and demand elsewhere also determine where cargoes go.
The key uncertainty is how persistent China’s shift will be. Lower prices could stimulate industrial gas use, while further growth in renewables and pipeline supply could keep imports subdued. For now, the evidence supports a forecast of Japan narrowly moving ahead in 2026, not a definitive claim about the final annual totals.
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